Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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The Gunma Bank, Ltd. (8334.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,701.35 - $24,257.75$21,197.92
Multi-Stage$3,053.53 - $3,341.83$3,195.03
Blended Fair Value$12,196.48
Current Price$1,210.50
Upside907.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS17.60%10.86%32.2620.9116.0515.3014.2214.3514.6813.6414.4714.08
YoY Growth--54.32%30.23%4.89%7.62%-0.87%-2.29%7.60%-5.71%2.76%22.35%
Dividend Yield--2.67%2.01%3.04%4.00%4.06%4.19%3.77%2.34%2.15%3.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)46,798.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12,378.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)34,420.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9,359.605,849.753,509.85
Cash Retained (M)34,420.0034,420.0034,420.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-9,359.60-5,849.75-3,509.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)25,060.4028,570.2530,910.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)383.67383.67383.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share65.3274.4780.56
LTM Dividend per Share32.2632.2632.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share65.3274.4780.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend97.58106.73112.83
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6,701.35$21,197.92$24,257.75
Upside / Downside453.60%1,651.17%1,903.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)46,798.0049,839.8753,079.4656,529.6360,204.0564,117.3266,040.84
Payout Ratio26.45%39.16%51.87%64.58%77.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12,378.0019,517.2327,532.2736,506.8046,531.6957,705.5861,087.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)18,063.0218,234.2318,405.45
Year 2 PV (M)23,582.3124,031.4824,484.90
Year 3 PV (M)28,939.4429,770.1930,616.68
Year 4 PV (M)34,137.9535,450.7936,801.15
Year 5 PV (M)39,181.2741,073.7443,038.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,027,640.481,077,275.901,128,810.99
Equity Value (M)1,171,544.461,225,836.341,282,157.80
Shares Outstanding (M)383.67383.67383.67
Fair Value$3,053.53$3,195.03$3,341.83
Upside / Downside152.25%163.94%176.07%

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