Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tachikawa Corporation (7989.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,691.14 - $2,727.04$2,158.07
Multi-Stage$3,482.78 - $3,832.80$3,654.37
Blended Fair Value$2,906.22
Current Price$1,950.00
Upside49.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.30%13.70%35.0431.4229.0928.0227.0427.0614.6114.4914.479.69
YoY Growth--11.52%7.99%3.82%3.61%-0.05%85.24%0.78%0.15%49.37%-0.16%
Dividend Yield--2.31%2.14%2.17%2.63%1.96%2.49%1.21%0.94%1.60%1.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,192.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,054.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,138.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)638.53399.08239.45
Cash Retained (M)2,138.572,138.572,138.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-638.53-399.08-239.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,500.031,739.481,899.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20.0720.0720.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share74.7486.6794.62
LTM Dividend per Share52.5252.5252.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share74.7486.6794.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend127.26139.19147.14
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate-1.00%0.00%1.00%
Fair Value$1,691.14$2,158.07$2,727.04
Upside / Downside-13.27%10.67%39.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,192.673,192.523,192.373,192.213,192.063,191.913,287.67
Payout Ratio33.02%44.41%55.81%67.21%78.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,054.101,417.901,781.652,145.382,509.062,872.723,041.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate-1.00%0.00%1.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,318.731,332.051,345.37
Year 2 PV (M)1,541.151,572.451,604.05
Year 3 PV (M)1,725.981,778.821,832.72
Year 4 PV (M)1,877.401,954.412,033.77
Year 5 PV (M)1,999.172,102.202,209.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)61,438.3764,604.8067,900.45
Equity Value (M)69,900.8073,344.7376,925.81
Shares Outstanding (M)20.0720.0720.07
Fair Value$3,482.78$3,654.37$3,832.80
Upside / Downside78.60%87.40%96.55%

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