Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Yamaha Corporation (7951.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$338.01 - $511.54$419.71
Multi-Stage$538.41 - $589.45$563.44
Blended Fair Value$491.58
Current Price$984.10
Upside-50.05%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS1.59%6.68%26.2925.5824.4024.7825.0024.2922.7321.8121.0516.90
YoY Growth--2.79%4.80%-1.53%-0.88%2.92%6.89%4.19%3.63%24.58%22.73%
Dividend Yield--2.52%2.05%1.33%1.33%1.24%1.44%1.30%1.14%1.63%1.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)17,845.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,948.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,897.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,569.002,230.631,338.38
Cash Retained (M)5,897.005,897.005,897.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,569.00-2,230.63-1,338.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,328.003,666.384,558.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)464.06464.06464.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.027.909.82
LTM Dividend per Share25.7525.7525.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.027.909.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend30.7633.6535.57
WACC / Discount Rate8.66%8.66%8.66%
Growth Rate-0.41%0.59%1.59%
Fair Value$338.01$419.71$511.54
Upside / Downside-65.65%-57.35%-48.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)17,845.0017,950.5118,056.6518,163.4118,270.8018,378.8318,930.19
Payout Ratio66.95%71.56%76.17%80.78%85.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,948.0012,846.0113,754.2214,672.7215,601.6016,540.9517,510.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.66%8.66%8.66%
Growth Rate-0.41%0.59%1.59%
Year 1 PV (M)11,705.1711,822.7011,940.23
Year 2 PV (M)11,419.7111,650.1911,882.98
Year 3 PV (M)11,100.4211,438.1611,782.69
Year 4 PV (M)10,754.9211,193.4411,645.22
Year 5 PV (M)10,389.8310,922.0311,475.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)194,482.18204,444.26214,810.45
Equity Value (M)249,852.22261,470.78273,537.41
Shares Outstanding (M)464.06464.06464.06
Fair Value$538.41$563.44$589.45
Upside / Downside-45.29%-42.75%-40.10%

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