Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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HOYA Corporation (7741.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8,264.67 - $14,478.74$10,912.24
Multi-Stage$7,860.80 - $8,590.72$8,219.08
Blended Fair Value$9,565.66
Current Price$20,475.00
Upside-53.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.45%1.81%111.58112.63115.5896.4397.9498.8799.1684.3585.5391.48
YoY Growth---0.93%-2.55%19.86%-1.54%-0.95%-0.29%17.56%-1.38%-6.51%-1.89%
Dividend Yield--0.65%0.61%0.68%0.83%0.66%0.96%1.20%1.34%1.47%2.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)209,280.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)55,040.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)154,240.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41,856.0026,160.0015,696.00
Cash Retained (M)154,240.00154,240.00154,240.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-41,856.00-26,160.00-15,696.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)112,384.00128,080.00138,544.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)344.31344.31344.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share326.41372.00402.39
LTM Dividend per Share159.86159.86159.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share326.41372.00402.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend486.27531.85562.24
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate3.86%4.86%5.86%
Fair Value$8,264.67$10,912.24$14,478.74
Upside / Downside-59.64%-46.70%-29.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)209,280.00219,453.74230,122.05241,308.99253,039.75265,340.79273,301.01
Payout Ratio26.30%39.04%51.78%64.52%77.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)55,040.0085,674.20119,156.78155,692.26195,498.36238,806.71252,803.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate3.86%4.86%5.86%
Year 1 PV (M)77,162.4277,905.3678,648.30
Year 2 PV (M)96,656.3398,526.55100,414.69
Year 3 PV (M)113,745.53117,062.77120,443.89
Year 4 PV (M)128,637.09133,663.29138,835.36
Year 5 PV (M)141,522.47148,467.98155,683.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,148,793.522,254,250.122,363,807.07
Equity Value (M)2,706,517.372,829,876.072,957,832.85
Shares Outstanding (M)344.31344.31344.31
Fair Value$7,860.80$8,219.08$8,590.72
Upside / Downside-61.61%-59.86%-58.04%

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