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Definitive Analysis

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Aeon Hokkaido Corporation (7512.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,860.70 - $4,548.56$4,262.66
Multi-Stage$13,609.24 - $14,940.97$14,262.64
Blended Fair Value$9,262.65
Current Price$920.00
Upside906.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.92%7.93%15.9611.9711.9611.959.109.0912.867.567.557.45
YoY Growth--33.39%0.06%0.06%31.39%0.08%-29.34%70.11%0.09%1.45%0.10%
Dividend Yield--1.81%1.28%1.46%1.12%0.89%1.17%1.81%0.94%1.27%1.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,188.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,226.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)962.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)637.60398.50239.10
Cash Retained (M)962.00962.00962.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-637.60-398.50-239.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)324.40563.50722.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)139.39139.39139.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.334.045.19
LTM Dividend per Share15.9715.9715.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.334.045.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend18.3020.0121.16
WACC / Discount Rate-26.51%-26.51%-26.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3,860.70$4,262.66$4,548.56
Upside / Downside319.64%363.33%394.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,188.003,395.223,615.913,850.944,101.254,367.844,498.87
Payout Ratio69.82%73.86%77.89%81.93%85.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,226.002,507.692,816.603,155.073,525.643,931.054,161.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-26.51%-26.51%-26.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,380.143,412.183,444.22
Year 2 PV (M)5,117.375,214.845,313.23
Year 3 PV (M)7,726.657,948.458,174.46
Year 4 PV (M)11,638.0712,085.6412,545.99
Year 5 PV (M)17,490.9318,335.7419,212.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,851,608.861,941,042.262,033,898.49
Equity Value (M)1,896,962.011,988,039.112,082,589.28
Shares Outstanding (M)139.39139.39139.39
Fair Value$13,609.24$14,262.64$14,940.97
Upside / Downside1,379.26%1,450.29%1,524.02%

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