Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Mobile Telecommunications Company Saudi Arabia (7030.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.52 - $10.00$8.14
Multi-Stage$14.53 - $15.97$15.24
Blended Fair Value$11.69
Current Price$11.16
Upside4.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.500.500.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.22%3.95%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)647.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)437.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)209.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)129.4780.9248.55
Cash Retained (M)209.42209.42209.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-129.47-80.92-48.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)79.96128.51160.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)898.73898.73898.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.140.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.140.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.630.67
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.52$8.14$10.00
Upside / Downside-41.58%-27.03%-10.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)647.34640.86634.45628.11621.83615.61634.08
Payout Ratio67.65%72.12%76.59%81.06%85.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)437.91462.18485.92509.14531.85554.05586.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)428.94433.32437.69
Year 2 PV (M)418.54427.12435.79
Year 3 PV (M)406.99419.58432.42
Year 4 PV (M)394.57410.92427.77
Year 5 PV (M)381.47401.34422.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,029.1411,603.4512,201.44
Equity Value (M)13,059.6413,695.7214,357.14
Shares Outstanding (M)898.73898.73898.73
Fair Value$14.53$15.24$15.97
Upside / Downside30.21%36.55%43.14%

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