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ZJLD Group Inc (6979.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.59 - $11.82$9.55
Multi-Stage$17.99 - $19.80$18.88
Blended Fair Value$14.21
Current Price$5.63
Upside152.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.210.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,640.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,481.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,159.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)528.12330.07198.04
Cash Retained (M)1,159.481,159.481,159.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-528.12-330.07-198.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)631.36829.40961.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,301.583,301.583,301.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.250.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.250.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.640.700.74
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.59$9.55$11.82
Upside / Downside34.88%69.57%110.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,640.582,614.172,588.032,562.152,536.532,511.162,586.50
Payout Ratio56.09%62.87%69.65%76.44%83.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,481.101,643.581,802.671,958.402,110.852,260.052,392.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,531.171,546.801,562.42
Year 2 PV (M)1,564.521,596.611,629.03
Year 3 PV (M)1,583.431,632.401,682.37
Year 4 PV (M)1,589.961,655.861,723.78
Year 5 PV (M)1,585.911,668.491,754.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)51,542.1354,226.0557,020.63
Equity Value (M)59,397.1262,326.2065,372.70
Shares Outstanding (M)3,301.583,301.583,301.58
Fair Value$17.99$18.88$19.80
Upside / Downside219.55%235.31%251.70%

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