Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Smoore International Holdings Limited (6969.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TobaccoSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.76 - $3.87$3.31
Multi-Stage$4.11 - $4.50$4.30
Blended Fair Value$3.81
Current Price$16.64
Upside-77.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162014
DPS-13.52%0.00%0.090.120.240.380.000.190.030.010.000.00
YoY Growth---23.16%-50.35%-38.91%0.00%-100.00%552.22%351.96%817.79%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.72%2.03%2.20%1.19%0.00%0.67%0.10%0.02%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,723.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,111.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,611.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)544.63340.39204.24
Cash Retained (M)1,611.711,611.711,611.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-544.63-340.39-204.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,067.081,271.321,407.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,159.556,159.556,159.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate10.56%10.56%10.56%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.76$3.31$3.87
Upside / Downside-83.42%-80.09%-76.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,723.162,695.932,668.972,642.282,615.852,589.702,667.39
Payout Ratio40.81%50.65%60.49%70.33%80.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,111.441,365.531,614.421,858.202,096.942,330.732,467.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.56%10.56%10.56%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,222.621,235.101,247.57
Year 2 PV (M)1,294.191,320.741,347.55
Year 3 PV (M)1,333.721,374.961,417.05
Year 4 PV (M)1,347.561,403.411,460.97
Year 5 PV (M)1,341.041,410.871,483.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,776.4819,754.2220,772.27
Equity Value (M)25,315.6026,499.2927,728.99
Shares Outstanding (M)6,159.556,159.556,159.55
Fair Value$4.11$4.30$4.50
Upside / Downside-75.30%-74.15%-72.95%

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