Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou Honghua Digital Technology Stock Company Ltd. (688789.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$53.99 - $119.29$77.76
Multi-Stage$39.40 - $43.01$41.17
Blended Fair Value$59.46
Current Price$84.60
Upside-29.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720112010
DPS0.00%17.35%0.550.450.390.010.000.000.160.340.000.11
YoY Growth--22.41%13.36%2,943.98%593.13%0.00%-100.00%-53.02%13,365.17%-97.74%1.51%
Dividend Yield--0.72%0.59%0.50%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)492.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)141.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)351.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)98.4361.5236.91
Cash Retained (M)351.09351.09351.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-98.43-61.52-36.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)252.66289.57314.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)179.57179.57179.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.411.611.75
LTM Dividend per Share0.790.790.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.411.611.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.192.402.54
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$53.99$77.76$119.29
Upside / Downside-36.18%-8.09%41.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)492.15524.14558.21594.49633.13674.29694.52
Payout Ratio28.66%40.93%53.20%65.46%77.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)141.06214.53296.95389.18492.15606.86642.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)193.58195.41197.24
Year 2 PV (M)241.77246.38251.03
Year 3 PV (M)285.92294.12302.49
Year 4 PV (M)326.25338.79351.70
Year 5 PV (M)362.99380.52398.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,663.845,937.416,221.44
Equity Value (M)7,074.347,392.647,722.63
Shares Outstanding (M)179.57179.57179.57
Fair Value$39.40$41.17$43.01
Upside / Downside-53.43%-51.34%-49.16%

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