Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

HOB Biotech Group Corp.,Ltd (688656.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.25 - $6.10$5.16
Multi-Stage$7.11 - $7.79$7.44
Blended Fair Value$6.30
Current Price$158.55
Upside-96.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-9.84%0.00%0.470.320.560.320.820.790.030.030.030.00
YoY Growth--48.91%-43.40%76.67%-61.55%4.02%2,756.71%-9.98%20.39%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.54%1.18%1.48%0.75%1.27%1.24%0.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)36.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)14.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.294.552.73
Cash Retained (M)14.7514.7514.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.29-4.55-2.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.4610.1912.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)59.6959.6959.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.170.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.170.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate9.25%9.25%9.25%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.25$5.16$6.10
Upside / Downside-97.32%-96.75%-96.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)36.4336.0735.7135.3534.9934.6435.68
Payout Ratio59.52%65.62%71.71%77.81%83.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.6823.6725.6127.5029.3631.1833.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.25%9.25%9.25%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)21.4421.6621.88
Year 2 PV (M)21.0221.4521.89
Year 3 PV (M)20.4621.0921.74
Year 4 PV (M)19.7920.6121.46
Year 5 PV (M)19.0420.0321.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)322.41339.20356.68
Equity Value (M)424.17444.05464.71
Shares Outstanding (M)59.6959.6959.69
Fair Value$7.11$7.44$7.79
Upside / Downside-95.52%-95.31%-95.09%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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