Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Wuxi ETEK Microelectronics Co.,Ltd. (688601.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.75 - $83.62$49.20
Multi-Stage$10.44 - $11.39$10.91
Blended Fair Value$30.05
Current Price$43.24
Upside-30.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720152014
DPS51.68%59.92%0.630.350.400.170.160.080.080.160.200.03
YoY Growth--77.17%-11.64%131.19%11.35%99.23%0.39%-50.00%-23.31%534.72%457.78%
Dividend Yield--1.56%0.77%0.69%0.22%0.21%0.10%0.00%0.00%0.27%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)54.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)53.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.826.774.06
Cash Retained (M)0.530.530.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.82-6.77-4.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)-10.29-6.23-3.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)128.72128.72128.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.05-0.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.05-0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate7.30%7.30%7.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.75$49.20$83.62
Upside / Downside-54.31%13.78%93.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)54.1257.6461.3965.3869.6374.1576.38
Payout Ratio99.02%97.21%95.41%93.61%91.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)53.5956.0358.5761.2063.9266.7470.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.30%7.30%7.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)51.7352.2252.71
Year 2 PV (M)49.9250.8751.83
Year 3 PV (M)48.1649.5450.95
Year 4 PV (M)46.4448.2350.06
Year 5 PV (M)44.7746.9349.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,103.021,156.301,211.61
Equity Value (M)1,344.041,404.091,466.35
Shares Outstanding (M)128.72128.72128.72
Fair Value$10.44$10.91$11.39
Upside / Downside-75.85%-74.77%-73.65%

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