Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Dareway Software Co.,Ltd. (688579.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.38 - $2.06$1.70
Multi-Stage$1.83 - $2.00$1.91
Blended Fair Value$1.81
Current Price$11.89
Upside-84.79%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.25%12.36%0.080.050.100.100.000.080.070.070.030.01
YoY Growth--60.00%-50.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%19.04%4.00%139.59%316.11%-73.68%
Dividend Yield--0.79%0.50%0.68%1.05%0.00%0.27%0.23%0.22%0.09%0.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)64.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)38.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.908.064.84
Cash Retained (M)38.4838.4838.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.90-8.06-4.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)25.5830.4233.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)400.37400.37400.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.140.15
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate0.57%1.57%2.57%
Fair Value$1.38$1.70$2.06
Upside / Downside-88.42%-85.69%-82.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)64.4865.4966.5267.5668.6269.7071.79
Payout Ratio40.32%50.26%60.19%70.13%80.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.0032.9240.0447.3854.9462.7366.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate0.57%1.57%2.57%
Year 1 PV (M)29.6329.9330.22
Year 2 PV (M)32.4633.1033.76
Year 3 PV (M)34.5835.6236.68
Year 4 PV (M)36.1037.5539.06
Year 5 PV (M)37.1038.9940.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)562.82591.36621.05
Equity Value (M)732.69766.55801.71
Shares Outstanding (M)400.37400.37400.37
Fair Value$1.83$1.91$2.00
Upside / Downside-84.61%-83.90%-83.16%

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