Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Chemclin Diagnostics Co., Ltd. (688468.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Diagnostics & ResearchSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.26 - $1.89$1.56
Multi-Stage$2.62 - $2.87$2.74
Blended Fair Value$2.15
Current Price$7.72
Upside-72.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS5.07%0.00%0.140.370.180.000.290.110.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---61.71%104.12%0.00%-100.00%157.17%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.92%4.95%1.43%0.00%1.15%0.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)56.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)56.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.307.064.24
Cash Retained (M)0.330.330.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.30-7.06-4.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)-10.96-6.73-3.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)373.19373.19373.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.02-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.02-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate7.40%7.40%7.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.26$1.56$1.89
Upside / Downside-83.65%-79.78%-75.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)56.4955.9255.3654.8154.2653.7255.33
Payout Ratio99.41%97.53%95.64%93.76%91.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)56.1554.5452.9551.3949.8648.3551.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.40%7.40%7.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)50.2750.7851.29
Year 2 PV (M)44.9845.9146.84
Year 3 PV (M)40.2441.4842.75
Year 4 PV (M)35.9837.4739.01
Year 5 PV (M)32.1633.8335.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)773.66813.95855.89
Equity Value (M)977.291,023.421,071.36
Shares Outstanding (M)373.19373.19373.19
Fair Value$2.62$2.74$2.87
Upside / Downside-66.08%-64.48%-62.81%

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