Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Fujian Supertech Advanced Material Co., Ltd. (688398.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.43 - $23.34$10.72
Multi-Stage$4.12 - $4.50$4.31
Blended Fair Value$7.51
Current Price$19.01
Upside-60.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162014
DPS57.63%47.61%0.350.120.220.170.140.040.020.010.040.01
YoY Growth--192.00%-44.44%25.00%20.00%300.00%105.13%83.57%-77.08%182.48%106.91%
Dividend Yield--2.16%0.58%1.04%1.01%0.75%0.17%0.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.494.682.81
Cash Retained (M)25.1325.1325.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.49-4.68-2.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.6420.4522.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)166.07166.07166.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate8.46%8.46%8.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.43$10.72$23.34
Upside / Downside-66.17%-43.61%22.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37.4739.9042.5045.2648.2051.3352.87
Payout Ratio32.93%44.35%55.76%67.17%78.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.3417.7023.7030.4037.8846.2048.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.46%8.46%8.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)16.1616.3116.47
Year 2 PV (M)19.7720.1420.52
Year 3 PV (M)23.1623.8324.50
Year 4 PV (M)26.3627.3728.41
Year 5 PV (M)29.3630.7832.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)569.18596.67625.21
Equity Value (M)683.99715.11747.38
Shares Outstanding (M)166.07166.07166.07
Fair Value$4.12$4.31$4.50
Upside / Downside-78.33%-77.35%-76.33%

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