Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Henan Shijia Photons Technology Co., Ltd. (688313.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.76 - $6.74$5.74
Multi-Stage$6.99 - $7.68$7.33
Blended Fair Value$6.53
Current Price$71.30
Upside-90.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.050.040.030.000.010.010.080.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%41.30%36.38%2,155.62%-90.12%-17.49%-81.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.46%0.24%0.24%0.01%0.03%0.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)328.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)299.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)65.6941.0624.63
Cash Retained (M)299.96299.96299.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-65.69-41.06-24.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)234.27258.90275.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)452.00452.00452.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.520.570.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.520.570.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.640.67
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.76$5.74$6.74
Upside / Downside-93.32%-91.95%-90.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)328.44325.16321.91318.69315.50312.35321.72
Payout Ratio8.67%24.94%41.20%57.47%73.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28.4881.09132.64183.15232.63281.11297.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)72.9973.7474.48
Year 2 PV (M)107.48109.69111.91
Year 3 PV (M)133.60137.73141.95
Year 4 PV (M)152.76159.09165.62
Year 5 PV (M)166.17174.82183.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,525.322,656.822,793.74
Equity Value (M)3,158.323,311.883,471.53
Shares Outstanding (M)452.00452.00452.00
Fair Value$6.99$7.33$7.68
Upside / Downside-90.20%-89.72%-89.23%

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