Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress Co., Ltd. (688131.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$54.42 - $279.95$110.87
Multi-Stage$29.82 - $32.63$31.20
Blended Fair Value$71.04
Current Price$82.60
Upside-14.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.39%63.70%0.220.190.220.010.010.110.010.000.030.02
YoY Growth--15.38%-13.40%2,486.58%-30.72%-88.58%656.16%296.77%-88.56%73.64%1,033.04%
Dividend Yield--0.55%0.76%0.39%0.01%0.01%0.10%0.00%0.00%0.03%0.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)294.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)48.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)246.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.9836.8622.12
Cash Retained (M)246.33246.33246.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.98-36.86-22.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)187.35209.47224.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)209.50209.50209.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.891.001.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.891.001.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.131.231.30
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$54.42$110.87$279.95
Upside / Downside-34.12%34.23%238.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)294.90314.07334.48356.23379.38404.04416.16
Payout Ratio16.47%31.18%45.88%60.59%75.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)48.5797.91153.47215.83285.65363.64384.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)90.0790.9391.78
Year 2 PV (M)129.87132.35134.84
Year 3 PV (M)168.02172.85177.76
Year 4 PV (M)204.58212.44220.54
Year 5 PV (M)239.58251.15263.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,415.525,677.095,948.67
Equity Value (M)6,247.646,536.806,836.76
Shares Outstanding (M)209.50209.50209.50
Fair Value$29.82$31.20$32.63
Upside / Downside-63.90%-62.22%-60.49%

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