Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Supezet Engineering Technology Corp., Ltd. (688121.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.75 - $109.60$102.71
Multi-Stage$16.35 - $17.88$17.10
Blended Fair Value$59.91
Current Price$12.89
Upside364.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS78.33%0.00%0.490.610.230.120.030.030.030.040.000.00
YoY Growth---20.21%163.62%96.06%329.29%1.87%-17.62%-15.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.34%3.27%0.83%0.49%0.07%0.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)120.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)88.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.0415.039.02
Cash Retained (M)31.9631.9631.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.04-15.03-9.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.9216.9422.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)218.11218.11218.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.080.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.080.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.480.51
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$44.75$102.71$109.60
Upside / Downside247.18%696.84%750.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)120.20128.02136.34145.20154.64164.69169.63
Payout Ratio73.41%76.73%80.05%83.36%86.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)88.2498.23109.13121.05134.04148.22156.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)91.3392.2093.06
Year 2 PV (M)94.3596.1597.96
Year 3 PV (M)97.30100.10102.94
Year 4 PV (M)100.19104.04108.01
Year 5 PV (M)103.01107.98113.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,080.963,229.783,384.28
Equity Value (M)3,567.153,730.243,899.41
Shares Outstanding (M)218.11218.11218.11
Fair Value$16.35$17.10$17.88
Upside / Downside26.88%32.68%38.70%

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