Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Suzhou Shihua New Material Technology Co., Ltd. (688093.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$140.50 - $298.35$279.60
Multi-Stage$45.20 - $49.48$47.30
Blended Fair Value$163.45
Current Price$39.89
Upside309.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS55.46%0.00%0.700.360.080.130.060.080.110.020.000.00
YoY Growth--93.22%371.67%-40.00%125.11%-26.24%-30.05%346.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.99%2.56%0.36%0.64%0.32%0.38%0.55%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)400.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)135.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)264.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)80.1150.0730.04
Cash Retained (M)264.83264.83264.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-80.11-50.07-30.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)184.72214.76234.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)266.99266.99266.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.690.800.88
LTM Dividend per Share0.510.510.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.690.800.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.201.311.39
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$140.50$279.60$298.35
Upside / Downside252.22%600.92%647.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)400.54426.57454.30483.83515.28548.77565.23
Payout Ratio33.88%45.10%56.33%67.55%78.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)135.71192.40255.90326.84405.91493.89522.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)179.13180.83182.53
Year 2 PV (M)221.81226.04230.30
Year 3 PV (M)263.75271.33279.04
Year 4 PV (M)304.97316.70328.76
Year 5 PV (M)345.47362.16379.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,752.8111,272.1811,811.42
Equity Value (M)12,067.9512,629.2313,211.53
Shares Outstanding (M)266.99266.99266.99
Fair Value$45.20$47.30$49.48
Upside / Downside13.31%18.58%24.05%

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