Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Raytron Technology Co.,Ltd. (688002.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.83 - $144.27$73.65
Multi-Stage$29.36 - $32.13$30.72
Blended Fair Value$52.18
Current Price$88.44
Upside-41.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS358.86%0.00%0.200.150.150.140.050.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--37.15%1.37%7.57%193.61%46,224.65%-96.36%29.81%-50.53%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.33%0.37%0.30%0.30%0.05%0.00%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)792.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)755.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)158.4799.0459.43
Cash Retained (M)755.62755.62755.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-158.47-99.04-59.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)597.15656.58696.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)456.45456.45456.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.311.441.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.311.441.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.391.521.61
WACC / Discount Rate8.70%8.70%8.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$45.83$73.65$144.27
Upside / Downside-48.17%-16.73%63.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)792.35843.85898.70957.121,019.331,085.591,118.15
Payout Ratio4.64%21.71%38.78%55.85%72.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.73183.18348.53534.59743.37977.031,034.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.70%8.70%8.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)166.95168.53170.11
Year 2 PV (M)289.47294.99300.55
Year 3 PV (M)404.65416.27428.10
Year 4 PV (M)512.81532.53552.81
Year 5 PV (M)614.25643.92674.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,414.9411,966.2812,538.73
Equity Value (M)13,403.0614,022.5114,665.03
Shares Outstanding (M)456.45456.45456.45
Fair Value$29.36$30.72$32.13
Upside / Downside-66.80%-65.26%-63.67%

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