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Definitive Analysis

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Aeon Co. (M) Bhd. (6599.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.70 - $1.04$0.86
Multi-Stage$1.83 - $2.02$1.93
Blended Fair Value$1.39
Current Price$1.30
Upside7.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.09%-3.09%0.040.040.030.020.040.040.040.030.040.05
YoY Growth--0.77%32.88%100.00%-62.50%0.00%0.00%33.33%-25.00%-20.00%-9.09%
Dividend Yield--2.93%3.62%2.31%0.95%3.10%3.54%2.70%1.70%1.69%1.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)119.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)63.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)55.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.8014.888.93
Cash Retained (M)55.7555.7555.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.80-14.88-8.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.9540.8846.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,404.001,404.001,404.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.070.08
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-3.25%-2.25%-1.25%
Fair Value$0.70$0.86$1.04
Upside / Downside-46.50%-33.87%-19.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)119.00116.32113.70111.14108.63106.18109.37
Payout Ratio53.15%60.52%67.89%75.26%82.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)63.2570.4077.1983.6489.7695.57101.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-3.25%-2.25%-1.25%
Year 1 PV (M)65.6266.3066.98
Year 2 PV (M)67.0768.4769.87
Year 3 PV (M)67.7569.8772.04
Year 4 PV (M)67.7870.6273.56
Year 5 PV (M)67.2670.8174.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,239.732,357.902,481.00
Equity Value (M)2,575.212,703.972,837.96
Shares Outstanding (M)1,404.001,404.001,404.00
Fair Value$1.83$1.93$2.02
Upside / Downside41.09%48.15%55.49%

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