Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Hitachi, Ltd. (6501.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,841.38 - $3,176.38$2,416.05
Multi-Stage$1,491.44 - $1,624.94$1,557.00
Blended Fair Value$1,986.52
Current Price$4,205.00
Upside-52.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS15.57%13.05%41.1431.4128.0724.1821.0219.9516.8014.7012.6112.60
YoY Growth--30.98%11.89%16.06%15.05%5.36%18.79%14.25%16.63%0.05%4.44%
Dividend Yield--0.98%0.84%1.58%1.88%1.65%2.93%2.08%1.88%1.83%2.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)632,603.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)197,841.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)434,762.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)126,520.6079,075.3847,445.23
Cash Retained (M)434,762.00434,762.00434,762.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-126,520.60-79,075.38-47,445.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)308,241.40355,686.63387,316.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,595.854,595.854,595.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share67.0777.3984.28
LTM Dividend per Share43.0543.0543.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share67.0777.3984.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend110.12120.44127.32
WACC / Discount Rate11.81%11.81%11.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,841.38$2,416.05$3,176.38
Upside / Downside-56.21%-42.54%-24.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)632,603.00673,722.20717,514.14764,152.56813,822.47866,720.93892,722.56
Payout Ratio31.27%43.02%54.76%66.51%78.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)197,841.00289,830.53392,942.81508,235.17636,855.34780,048.84825,768.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.81%11.81%11.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)256,785.19259,219.18261,653.16
Year 2 PV (M)308,447.36314,322.41320,252.89
Year 3 PV (M)353,461.62363,608.24373,947.20
Year 4 PV (M)392,413.74407,504.86423,027.13
Year 5 PV (M)425,844.51446,412.96467,768.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,117,500.405,364,677.585,621,314.82
Equity Value (M)6,854,452.827,155,745.237,467,963.81
Shares Outstanding (M)4,595.854,595.854,595.85
Fair Value$1,491.44$1,557.00$1,624.94
Upside / Downside-64.53%-62.97%-61.36%

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