Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Longwell Company (6290.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$355.88 - $1,216.03$1,139.10
Multi-Stage$589.60 - $649.66$619.05
Blended Fair Value$879.07
Current Price$96.20
Upside813.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.15%9.50%2.932.021.843.223.221.331.322.181.631.51
YoY Growth--45.08%9.79%-42.86%-0.09%142.65%0.95%-39.62%33.53%7.96%27.78%
Dividend Yield--3.53%2.20%2.68%6.15%5.15%2.62%2.64%4.68%5.18%4.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,027.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)470.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)556.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)205.50128.4477.06
Cash Retained (M)556.77556.77556.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-205.50-128.44-77.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)351.27428.33479.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)160.61160.61160.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.192.672.99
LTM Dividend per Share2.932.932.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.192.672.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.125.605.92
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate0.75%1.75%2.75%
Fair Value$355.88$1,139.10$1,216.03
Upside / Downside269.93%1,084.10%1,164.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,027.511,045.461,063.741,082.331,101.241,120.491,154.11
Payout Ratio45.81%54.65%63.49%72.33%81.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)470.74571.36675.35782.80893.801,008.441,067.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate0.75%1.75%2.75%
Year 1 PV (M)553.58559.07564.57
Year 2 PV (M)633.98646.63659.40
Year 3 PV (M)711.99733.40755.24
Year 4 PV (M)787.66819.40852.09
Year 5 PV (M)861.03904.62949.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)91,150.1295,764.49100,563.89
Equity Value (M)94,698.3599,427.62104,345.14
Shares Outstanding (M)160.61160.61160.61
Fair Value$589.60$619.05$649.66
Upside / Downside512.89%543.50%575.32%

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