Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Bull Will Co., Ltd. (6259.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.58 - $3.71$3.13
Multi-Stage$4.35 - $4.77$4.55
Blended Fair Value$3.84
Current Price$16.00
Upside-75.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.200.570.150.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---65.66%291.47%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.17%3.04%0.78%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.791.120.67
Cash Retained (M)4.124.124.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.79-1.12-0.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.333.003.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)24.7424.7424.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.34
WACC / Discount Rate9.02%9.02%9.02%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.58$3.13$3.71
Upside / Downside-83.90%-80.44%-76.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8.968.878.788.708.618.528.78
Payout Ratio54.01%61.20%68.40%75.60%82.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.845.436.016.577.137.678.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.02%9.02%9.02%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4.934.985.03
Year 2 PV (M)4.955.055.16
Year 3 PV (M)4.925.075.23
Year 4 PV (M)4.845.055.25
Year 5 PV (M)4.734.985.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)83.1787.5092.01
Equity Value (M)107.56112.64117.92
Shares Outstanding (M)24.7424.7424.74
Fair Value$4.35$4.55$4.77
Upside / Downside-72.83%-71.55%-70.21%

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