Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Bank of Guizhou Co., Ltd. (6199.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.29 - $3.49$2.85
Multi-Stage$4.59 - $5.05$4.82
Blended Fair Value$3.84
Current Price$1.09
Upside251.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS703.54%0.29%0.060.060.060.070.070.000.050.040.060.07
YoY Growth--8.16%-1.91%-13.52%4.76%3,485,092.86%-100.00%32.12%-37.58%-10.46%6.50%
Dividend Yield--6.51%3.94%3.54%3.34%3.03%0.00%2.49%2.02%2.92%3.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,785.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)918.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,866.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)757.01473.13283.88
Cash Retained (M)2,866.312,866.312,866.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-757.01-473.13-283.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,109.302,393.172,582.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14,588.0514,588.0514,588.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.24
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-1.85%-0.85%0.15%
Fair Value$2.29$2.85$3.49
Upside / Downside110.27%161.78%220.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,785.043,752.723,720.673,688.893,657.383,626.153,734.93
Payout Ratio24.27%37.42%50.56%63.71%76.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)918.741,404.201,881.312,350.162,810.873,263.533,454.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-1.85%-0.85%0.15%
Year 1 PV (M)1,298.681,311.921,325.15
Year 2 PV (M)1,609.191,642.151,675.44
Year 3 PV (M)1,859.171,916.581,975.16
Year 4 PV (M)2,056.532,141.632,229.35
Year 5 PV (M)2,208.292,323.102,442.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)57,943.0860,955.7464,092.42
Equity Value (M)66,974.9470,291.1173,740.16
Shares Outstanding (M)14,588.0514,588.0514,588.05
Fair Value$4.59$4.82$5.05
Upside / Downside321.20%342.06%363.75%

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