Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jiangsu Boqian New Materials Stock Co., Ltd. (605376.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.92 - $27.20$17.36
Multi-Stage$8.88 - $9.68$9.28
Blended Fair Value$13.32
Current Price$65.44
Upside-79.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS97.96%55.44%0.510.310.200.280.010.020.010.020.000.00
YoY Growth--62.48%52.61%-26.46%2,801.05%-42.53%28.62%-45.16%402.86%659.05%-89.94%
Dividend Yield--1.35%1.63%0.51%0.61%0.02%0.10%0.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)153.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)84.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)69.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.8019.2511.55
Cash Retained (M)69.0969.0969.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.80-19.25-11.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)38.2949.8457.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)263.76263.76263.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.470.510.54
WACC / Discount Rate9.63%9.63%9.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.92$17.36$27.20
Upside / Downside-81.79%-73.48%-58.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)153.98163.99174.65186.00198.09210.97217.30
Payout Ratio55.13%62.11%69.08%76.05%83.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)84.89101.85120.65141.46164.47189.87201.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.63%9.63%9.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)92.0292.9093.77
Year 2 PV (M)98.50100.37102.27
Year 3 PV (M)104.35107.35110.40
Year 4 PV (M)109.62113.84118.18
Year 5 PV (M)114.35119.87125.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,824.571,912.702,004.20
Equity Value (M)2,343.422,447.032,554.42
Shares Outstanding (M)263.76263.76263.76
Fair Value$8.88$9.28$9.68
Upside / Downside-86.42%-85.82%-85.20%

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