Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Zhejiang Huada New Materials Co., Ltd. (605158.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.73 - $65.48$61.36
Multi-Stage$10.23 - $11.19$10.70
Blended Fair Value$36.03
Current Price$8.37
Upside330.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS43.10%13.83%0.270.150.110.210.030.050.040.030.110.06
YoY Growth--88.25%28.82%-45.57%579.58%-33.10%9.34%42.05%-73.63%74.88%-15.07%
Dividend Yield--3.15%1.82%1.68%3.00%0.33%0.48%0.44%0.00%1.18%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)163.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)93.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)70.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32.7420.4612.28
Cash Retained (M)70.1470.1470.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-32.74-20.46-12.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)37.4049.6857.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)497.21497.21497.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.290.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32.73$61.36$65.48
Upside / Downside291.06%633.10%682.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)163.70174.34185.67197.74210.59224.28231.01
Payout Ratio57.15%63.72%70.29%76.86%83.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)93.55111.09130.51151.98175.70201.85213.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)103.48104.46105.44
Year 2 PV (M)113.23115.39117.57
Year 3 PV (M)122.83126.36129.95
Year 4 PV (M)132.26137.35142.58
Year 5 PV (M)141.54148.38155.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,474.154,690.254,914.62
Equity Value (M)5,087.495,322.185,565.64
Shares Outstanding (M)497.21497.21497.21
Fair Value$10.23$10.70$11.19
Upside / Downside22.25%27.89%33.74%

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