Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Wuxi NCE Power Co., Ltd. (605111.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.40 - $44.41$29.23
Multi-Stage$14.63 - $15.98$15.29
Blended Fair Value$22.26
Current Price$36.05
Upside-38.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%93.46%0.210.210.200.100.000.000.050.000.000.00
YoY Growth---0.53%6.08%95.54%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%1,683.95%-85.59%
Dividend Yield--0.61%0.76%0.47%0.19%0.00%0.00%0.65%0.00%0.01%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)436.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)48.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)387.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)87.3854.6132.77
Cash Retained (M)387.96387.96387.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-87.38-54.61-32.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)300.58333.35355.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)414.68414.68414.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.720.800.86
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.720.800.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.97
WACC / Discount Rate9.86%9.86%9.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.40$29.23$44.41
Upside / Downside-43.41%-18.92%23.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)436.89465.29495.53527.74562.04598.57616.53
Payout Ratio11.20%26.96%42.72%58.48%74.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)48.93125.44211.69308.62417.26538.72570.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.86%9.86%9.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)113.11114.18115.25
Year 2 PV (M)172.12175.40178.71
Year 3 PV (M)226.27232.77239.38
Year 4 PV (M)275.85286.46297.37
Year 5 PV (M)321.14336.66352.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,956.665,196.075,444.64
Equity Value (M)6,065.166,341.536,628.12
Shares Outstanding (M)414.68414.68414.68
Fair Value$14.63$15.29$15.98
Upside / Downside-59.43%-57.58%-55.66%

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