Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangxi Jovo Energy Co., Ltd (605090.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$89.14 - $402.44$205.87
Multi-Stage$46.66 - $51.02$48.80
Blended Fair Value$127.33
Current Price$34.69
Upside267.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS62.91%0.00%0.830.580.320.130.020.070.200.200.180.21
YoY Growth--41.55%82.03%140.38%707.63%-77.06%-64.39%0.21%12.27%-14.18%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.23%2.11%1.43%0.67%0.05%0.23%0.00%0.66%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,390.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)585.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)804.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)278.03173.77104.26
Cash Retained (M)804.32804.32804.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-278.03-173.77-104.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)526.30630.55700.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)686.97686.97686.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.770.921.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.770.921.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.621.771.87
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$89.14$205.87$402.44
Upside / Downside156.96%493.46%1,060.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,390.131,480.491,576.721,679.201,788.351,904.591,961.73
Payout Ratio42.14%51.71%61.28%70.86%80.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)585.81765.59966.281,189.821,438.341,714.141,814.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)706.05712.74719.43
Year 2 PV (M)821.81837.46853.26
Year 3 PV (M)933.22960.01987.30
Year 4 PV (M)1,040.391,080.401,121.56
Year 5 PV (M)1,143.441,198.671,256.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,411.0028,734.9630,109.60
Equity Value (M)32,055.9133,524.2535,047.17
Shares Outstanding (M)686.97686.97686.97
Fair Value$46.66$48.80$51.02
Upside / Downside34.51%40.68%47.07%

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