Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo Shimao Energy Co.,Ltd (605028.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.82 - $202.75$85.79
Multi-Stage$29.55 - $32.32$30.91
Blended Fair Value$58.35
Current Price$30.79
Upside89.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS80.19%0.00%0.600.300.500.500.020.030.300.100.100.00
YoY Growth--100.00%-40.00%0.00%2,632.52%-42.08%-89.42%201.12%1.75%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.62%1.87%2.83%2.60%0.09%0.16%1.47%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)164.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)127.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)36.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32.8820.5512.33
Cash Retained (M)36.6536.6536.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-32.88-20.55-12.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.7716.1024.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)159.58159.58159.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.100.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.800.800.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.100.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.820.900.95
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate4.39%5.39%6.39%
Fair Value$40.82$85.79$202.75
Upside / Downside32.59%178.64%558.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)164.40173.25182.58192.42202.78213.70220.11
Payout Ratio77.70%80.16%82.62%85.08%87.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)127.74138.88150.85163.71177.52192.33203.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate4.39%5.39%6.39%
Year 1 PV (M)129.18130.41131.65
Year 2 PV (M)130.51133.02135.55
Year 3 PV (M)131.73135.55139.45
Year 4 PV (M)132.86138.02143.33
Year 5 PV (M)133.89140.42147.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,056.994,255.074,460.82
Equity Value (M)4,715.144,932.505,158.02
Shares Outstanding (M)159.58159.58159.58
Fair Value$29.55$30.91$32.32
Upside / Downside-4.04%0.39%4.98%

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