Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Changhua Holding Group Co., Ltd. (605018.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.14 - $26.12$24.46
Multi-Stage$14.44 - $15.95$15.18
Blended Fair Value$19.82
Current Price$11.70
Upside69.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS25.16%0.00%0.160.050.340.140.050.050.040.220.030.00
YoY Growth--236.33%-86.03%136.23%196.61%-6.69%18.66%-79.92%745.12%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.39%0.51%3.12%0.78%0.30%0.37%0.31%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)84.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)14.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.9310.586.35
Cash Retained (M)14.2914.2914.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.93-10.58-6.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2.643.717.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)599.36599.36599.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate-2.52%-2.52%-2.52%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$22.14$24.46$26.12
Upside / Downside89.24%109.09%123.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)84.6383.7982.9582.1281.3080.4882.90
Payout Ratio83.12%84.49%85.87%87.25%88.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70.3570.8071.2371.6572.0572.4476.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-2.52%-2.52%-2.52%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)71.8972.6273.36
Year 2 PV (M)73.4574.9676.48
Year 3 PV (M)75.0277.3479.71
Year 4 PV (M)76.6179.7983.06
Year 5 PV (M)78.2282.2986.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,280.178,711.339,160.28
Equity Value (M)8,655.369,098.349,559.42
Shares Outstanding (M)599.36599.36599.36
Fair Value$14.44$15.18$15.95
Upside / Downside23.43%29.75%36.32%

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