Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Jihua Group Co., Ltd. (603980.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.31 - $0.41$0.36
Multi-Stage$1.17 - $1.29$1.23
Blended Fair Value$0.80
Current Price$5.66
Upside-85.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-24.18%-15.98%0.070.090.160.170.510.280.180.290.290.06
YoY Growth---20.56%-44.78%-7.51%-66.07%81.99%54.27%-37.50%0.00%427.34%-86.24%
Dividend Yield--1.56%2.31%3.39%2.92%7.98%3.91%1.48%2.19%1.65%0.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)56.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.317.074.24
Cash Retained (M)4.124.124.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.31-7.07-4.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)-7.20-2.95-0.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)685.14685.14685.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.070.08
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate-12.50%-11.50%-10.50%
Fair Value$0.31$0.36$0.41
Upside / Downside-94.53%-93.60%-92.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)56.5650.0544.3039.2034.6930.7031.62
Payout Ratio92.72%92.18%91.63%91.09%90.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52.4446.1440.5935.7131.4127.6329.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate-12.50%-11.50%-10.50%
Year 1 PV (M)42.9743.4643.95
Year 2 PV (M)35.2136.0236.84
Year 3 PV (M)28.8529.8530.87
Year 4 PV (M)23.6424.7425.87
Year 5 PV (M)19.3720.5021.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)649.49687.47727.20
Equity Value (M)799.53842.03886.42
Shares Outstanding (M)685.14685.14685.14
Fair Value$1.17$1.23$1.29
Upside / Downside-79.38%-78.29%-77.14%

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