Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

L&K Engineering (Suzhou) Co.,Ltd. (603929.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$505.80 - $595.91$558.46
Multi-Stage$390.89 - $428.99$409.58
Blended Fair Value$484.02
Current Price$41.94
Upside1,054.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.95%29.57%1.000.250.100.100.250.250.200.160.150.07
YoY Growth--300.00%150.00%0.00%-60.00%0.00%23.01%29.65%4.52%100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.07%1.19%0.59%0.88%2.44%1.78%1.03%0.62%0.49%1.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)639.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)213.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)425.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)127.8779.9247.95
Cash Retained (M)425.98425.98425.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-127.87-79.92-47.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)298.11346.06378.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)213.37213.37213.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.401.621.77
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.401.621.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.402.622.77
WACC / Discount Rate-0.30%-0.30%-0.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$505.80$558.46$595.91
Upside / Downside1,106.00%1,231.56%1,320.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)639.34680.90725.16772.29822.49875.95902.23
Payout Ratio33.37%44.70%56.02%67.35%78.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)213.36304.35406.26520.13647.09788.36834.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.30%-0.30%-0.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)302.38305.25308.11
Year 2 PV (M)401.03408.66416.37
Year 3 PV (M)510.12524.76539.68
Year 4 PV (M)630.54654.78679.73
Year 5 PV (M)763.23800.09838.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)80,796.2184,698.7088,750.54
Equity Value (M)83,403.5087,392.2491,532.80
Shares Outstanding (M)213.37213.37213.37
Fair Value$390.89$409.58$428.99
Upside / Downside832.02%876.60%922.87%

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