Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Suzhou Xingye Materials Technology Co.,Ltd. (603928.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.65 - $2.27$1.96
Multi-Stage$2.70 - $2.97$2.83
Blended Fair Value$2.40
Current Price$15.66
Upside-84.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.85%-1.92%0.150.010.780.120.150.180.180.150.120.19
YoY Growth--1,637.46%-98.92%573.49%-25.00%-13.38%-2.68%21.85%29.80%-39.02%6.77%
Dividend Yield--1.32%0.10%8.69%1.34%1.77%2.21%1.49%1.33%0.59%1.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)77.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.609.755.85
Cash Retained (M)57.0357.0357.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.60-9.75-5.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)41.4347.2851.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)262.20262.20262.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.260.28
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate-3.92%-2.92%-1.92%
Fair Value$1.65$1.96$2.27
Upside / Downside-89.47%-87.46%-85.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)77.9975.7173.5071.3569.2767.2569.26
Payout Ratio26.88%39.51%52.13%64.75%77.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.9729.9138.3246.2053.6060.5264.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate-3.92%-2.92%-1.92%
Year 1 PV (M)26.9327.2127.49
Year 2 PV (M)31.0531.7032.36
Year 3 PV (M)33.7134.7735.86
Year 4 PV (M)35.2036.6938.22
Year 5 PV (M)35.7837.6839.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)545.71574.70604.92
Equity Value (M)708.37742.75778.50
Shares Outstanding (M)262.20262.20262.20
Fair Value$2.70$2.83$2.97
Upside / Downside-82.75%-81.91%-81.04%

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