Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hangzhou Youngsun Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd. (603901.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.35 - $9.27$5.19
Multi-Stage$2.32 - $2.53$2.42
Blended Fair Value$3.80
Current Price$11.74
Upside-67.59%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.94%13.37%0.180.140.170.130.070.050.040.070.030.03
YoY Growth--29.62%-19.30%34.80%91.82%26.75%19.02%-38.92%151.87%-12.46%-36.17%
Dividend Yield--1.71%1.52%1.14%0.94%0.59%0.64%0.52%0.83%0.20%0.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)63.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)35.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.747.964.78
Cash Retained (M)35.7735.7735.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.74-7.96-4.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.0327.8130.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)460.59460.59460.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate8.98%8.98%8.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3.35$5.19$9.27
Upside / Downside-71.47%-55.81%-21.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)63.6967.8372.2476.9381.9387.2689.87
Payout Ratio43.84%53.07%62.30%71.54%80.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.9236.0045.0155.0366.1778.5383.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.98%8.98%8.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)32.7233.0333.34
Year 2 PV (M)37.1837.8938.61
Year 3 PV (M)41.3342.5143.72
Year 4 PV (M)45.1746.9148.69
Year 5 PV (M)48.7251.0853.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)862.00903.63946.86
Equity Value (M)1,067.121,115.051,164.75
Shares Outstanding (M)460.59460.59460.59
Fair Value$2.32$2.42$2.53
Upside / Downside-80.27%-79.38%-78.46%

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