Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Guangzhou Baiyun Electric Equipment Co., Ltd. (603861.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.52 - $12.10$8.81
Multi-Stage$6.14 - $6.72$6.43
Blended Fair Value$7.62
Current Price$10.56
Upside-27.87%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.12%5.83%0.180.160.190.160.190.190.140.140.010.10
YoY Growth--7.92%-13.74%21.91%-18.78%2.58%37.24%-0.54%1,584.15%-91.56%-3.94%
Dividend Yield--1.88%1.90%2.27%1.82%2.49%2.28%1.05%0.94%0.03%0.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)220.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)44.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)176.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)44.1227.5716.54
Cash Retained (M)176.11176.11176.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-44.12-27.57-16.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)131.99148.54159.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)512.10512.10512.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.290.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.290.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate3.83%4.83%5.83%
Fair Value$6.52$8.81$12.10
Upside / Downside-38.24%-16.60%14.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)220.59231.25242.43254.14266.42279.30287.68
Payout Ratio20.16%34.13%48.10%62.07%76.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)44.4878.93116.60157.74202.57251.37266.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate3.83%4.83%5.83%
Year 1 PV (M)71.5172.2072.89
Year 2 PV (M)95.7297.5799.44
Year 3 PV (M)117.32120.74124.23
Year 4 PV (M)136.50141.84147.33
Year 5 PV (M)153.47161.01168.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,571.252,697.482,828.61
Equity Value (M)3,145.783,290.843,441.33
Shares Outstanding (M)512.10512.10512.10
Fair Value$6.14$6.43$6.72
Upside / Downside-41.83%-39.15%-36.36%

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