Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co., Ltd. (603856.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.51 - $31.31$19.78
Multi-Stage$9.61 - $10.49$10.04
Blended Fair Value$14.91
Current Price$11.51
Upside29.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.67%13.98%0.290.170.150.360.230.170.140.050.050.09
YoY Growth--72.35%12.76%-58.44%57.65%30.39%27.19%170.67%-2.17%-39.70%9.76%
Dividend Yield--2.56%1.57%1.29%2.50%1.46%1.56%1.08%0.38%0.43%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)174.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)137.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.9421.8413.10
Cash Retained (M)137.28137.28137.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.94-21.84-13.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)102.34115.44124.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)268.46268.46268.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.380.430.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.380.430.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.60
WACC / Discount Rate9.57%9.57%9.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$13.51$19.78$31.31
Upside / Downside17.35%71.81%172.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)174.72186.08198.17211.05224.77239.38246.56
Payout Ratio21.43%35.14%48.86%62.57%76.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.4465.3996.82132.06171.47215.44228.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.57%9.57%9.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)59.1259.6860.24
Year 2 PV (M)79.1580.6582.17
Year 3 PV (M)97.60100.40103.26
Year 4 PV (M)114.57118.98123.51
Year 5 PV (M)130.15136.44142.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,098.142,199.482,304.70
Equity Value (M)2,578.732,695.632,816.85
Shares Outstanding (M)268.46268.46268.46
Fair Value$9.61$10.04$10.49
Upside / Downside-16.55%-12.76%-8.84%

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