Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Argus (Shanghai) Textile Chemicals Co.,Ltd. (603790.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.62 - $2.22$1.92
Multi-Stage$2.78 - $3.05$2.91
Blended Fair Value$2.42
Current Price$25.92
Upside-90.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.30%28.31%0.130.080.120.100.200.230.170.070.220.02
YoY Growth--67.47%-32.34%19.69%-50.61%-13.33%33.33%147.80%-69.12%872.06%110.14%
Dividend Yield--0.83%0.69%1.03%0.95%1.88%1.57%0.81%0.57%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)57.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.467.164.30
Cash Retained (M)31.5031.5031.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.46-7.16-4.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)20.0424.3327.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)194.45194.45194.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.260.27
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate-4.17%-3.17%-2.17%
Fair Value$1.62$1.92$2.22
Upside / Downside-93.77%-92.58%-91.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)57.3055.4953.7352.0350.3848.7850.25
Payout Ratio45.04%54.03%63.02%72.01%81.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.8129.9833.8637.4740.8143.9046.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate-4.17%-3.17%-2.17%
Year 1 PV (M)27.0227.3027.58
Year 2 PV (M)27.5028.0828.66
Year 3 PV (M)27.4228.2929.17
Year 4 PV (M)26.9228.0629.24
Year 5 PV (M)26.1027.4928.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)405.14426.73449.22
Equity Value (M)540.10565.94592.81
Shares Outstanding (M)194.45194.45194.45
Fair Value$2.78$2.91$3.05
Upside / Downside-89.28%-88.77%-88.24%

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