Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jiangsu Xinri E-Vehicle Co., Ltd. (603787.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - Recreational VehiclesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.21 - $3.33$2.74
Multi-Stage$2.88 - $3.15$3.02
Blended Fair Value$2.88
Current Price$12.10
Upside-76.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.67%11.85%0.200.440.040.220.110.220.110.000.160.13
YoY Growth---54.03%900.00%-80.00%108.33%-52.00%108.33%0.00%-100.00%25.00%100.00%
Dividend Yield--1.88%3.70%0.21%1.61%0.49%1.94%0.88%0.00%1.88%1.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)58.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)34.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.687.304.38
Cash Retained (M)34.5434.5434.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.68-7.30-4.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.8527.2330.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)232.25232.25232.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Fair Value$2.21$2.74$3.33
Upside / Downside-81.74%-77.37%-72.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)58.4159.4760.5561.6662.7863.9265.83
Payout Ratio40.87%50.70%60.52%70.35%80.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.8830.1536.6543.3750.3357.5360.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Year 1 PV (M)27.1427.4127.68
Year 2 PV (M)29.7030.2930.89
Year 3 PV (M)31.6432.5933.56
Year 4 PV (M)33.0534.3835.75
Year 5 PV (M)34.0035.7237.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)514.21540.22567.28
Equity Value (M)669.73700.61732.66
Shares Outstanding (M)232.25232.25232.25
Fair Value$2.88$3.02$3.15
Upside / Downside-76.17%-75.07%-73.93%

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