Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Zhejiang Dayuan Pumps Industry Co., Ltd (603757.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$196.95 - $232.04$217.46
Multi-Stage$138.01 - $151.41$144.58
Blended Fair Value$181.02
Current Price$47.49
Upside281.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS36.52%18.67%1.450.880.340.960.480.310.320.340.170.16
YoY Growth--64.83%160.54%-64.98%102.71%55.56%-3.62%-7.74%103.93%8.31%-40.55%
Dividend Yield--6.25%3.78%1.28%6.46%2.46%2.15%1.77%1.18%1.02%0.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)201.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)118.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)83.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.3425.2115.13
Cash Retained (M)83.6383.6383.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.34-25.21-15.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)43.2958.4268.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)172.85172.85172.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.340.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.680.680.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.340.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.931.021.08
WACC / Discount Rate1.79%1.79%1.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$196.95$217.46$232.04
Upside / Downside314.72%357.90%388.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)201.68214.79228.75243.62259.45276.31284.60
Payout Ratio58.53%64.83%71.12%77.41%83.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)118.05139.24162.69188.59217.18248.68263.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.79%1.79%1.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)135.50136.79138.07
Year 2 PV (M)154.07157.01159.97
Year 3 PV (M)173.82178.81183.89
Year 4 PV (M)194.79202.29209.99
Year 5 PV (M)217.07227.55238.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,979.2124,089.1125,241.49
Equity Value (M)23,854.4624,991.5526,171.86
Shares Outstanding (M)172.85172.85172.85
Fair Value$138.01$144.58$151.41
Upside / Downside190.60%204.45%218.83%

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