Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiajiayue Group Co., Ltd. (603708.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.71 - $46.79$43.85
Multi-Stage$64.39 - $70.75$67.51
Blended Fair Value$55.68
Current Price$10.24
Upside443.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.64%6.51%0.330.120.030.460.500.420.300.260.110.27
YoY Growth--164.65%385.16%-94.45%-7.09%19.01%37.31%17.82%130.77%-59.38%57.09%
Dividend Yield--3.35%1.19%0.19%3.60%2.39%1.29%1.61%1.61%0.71%2.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)149.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)86.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)63.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.9418.7111.23
Cash Retained (M)63.1363.1363.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.94-18.71-11.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.1944.4251.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)629.53629.53629.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate-14.81%-14.81%-14.81%
Growth Rate4.38%5.38%6.38%
Fair Value$39.71$43.85$46.79
Upside / Downside287.77%328.19%356.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)149.68157.73166.21175.16184.58194.51200.35
Payout Ratio57.83%64.26%70.70%77.13%83.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)86.55101.36117.51135.10154.25175.06185.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-14.81%-14.81%-14.81%
Growth Rate4.38%5.38%6.38%
Year 1 PV (M)117.86118.98120.11
Year 2 PV (M)158.87161.93165.02
Year 3 PV (M)212.39218.56224.84
Year 4 PV (M)281.96292.93304.20
Year 5 PV (M)372.11390.28409.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)39,391.5441,314.9643,312.80
Equity Value (M)40,534.7342,497.6444,536.12
Shares Outstanding (M)629.53629.53629.53
Fair Value$64.39$67.51$70.75
Upside / Downside528.80%559.25%590.87%

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