Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Ningbo Water Meter (Group) Co., Ltd. (603700.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.38 - $18.47$12.06
Multi-Stage$36.87 - $40.75$38.77
Blended Fair Value$25.42
Current Price$11.90
Upside113.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.74%-0.30%0.310.320.810.420.240.390.240.360.240.05
YoY Growth---3.88%-60.86%94.87%74.97%-38.86%61.01%-33.67%50.35%405.56%-84.76%
Dividend Yield--2.66%2.69%5.77%2.48%0.94%1.62%1.03%1.98%1.32%0.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)92.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)51.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.5211.586.95
Cash Retained (M)51.6851.6851.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.52-11.58-6.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.1640.1144.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)200.72200.72200.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.400.43
WACC / Discount Rate2.00%2.00%2.00%
Growth Rate-2.30%-1.30%-0.30%
Fair Value$8.38$12.06$18.47
Upside / Downside-29.59%1.35%55.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)92.6091.4090.2189.0487.8886.7389.34
Payout Ratio44.19%53.35%62.51%71.68%80.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.9248.7656.3963.8271.0478.0682.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.00%2.00%2.00%
Growth Rate-2.30%-1.30%-0.30%
Year 1 PV (M)47.3247.8148.29
Year 2 PV (M)53.1154.2055.30
Year 3 PV (M)58.3260.1361.98
Year 4 PV (M)63.0065.6268.32
Year 5 PV (M)67.1870.6974.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,112.157,483.667,870.53
Equity Value (M)7,401.087,782.118,178.77
Shares Outstanding (M)200.72200.72200.72
Fair Value$36.87$38.77$40.75
Upside / Downside209.85%225.81%242.41%

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