Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Changzheng Engineering Co.,LTD (603698.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.79 - $18.51$11.50
Multi-Stage$5.89 - $6.41$6.15
Blended Fair Value$8.82
Current Price$20.85
Upside-57.69%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-2.98%0.270.100.090.100.090.000.110.090.170.05
YoY Growth--178.41%11.41%-12.49%15.60%0.00%-100.00%17.50%-44.44%242.86%-86.88%
Dividend Yield--1.56%0.73%0.59%0.74%0.57%0.00%0.75%0.64%0.74%0.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)196.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)156.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)39.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)39.2224.5214.71
Cash Retained (M)39.7839.7839.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-39.22-24.52-14.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.5515.2625.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)535.99535.99535.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.030.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.030.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.34
WACC / Discount Rate9.47%9.47%9.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.79$11.50$18.51
Upside / Downside-62.65%-44.85%-11.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)196.12208.87222.45236.91252.30268.70276.77
Payout Ratio79.72%81.77%83.83%85.89%87.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)156.34170.80186.48203.47221.89241.83256.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.47%9.47%9.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)154.57156.03157.50
Year 2 PV (M)152.71155.62158.56
Year 3 PV (M)150.79155.12159.53
Year 4 PV (M)148.81154.53160.42
Year 5 PV (M)146.77153.86161.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,403.092,519.162,639.67
Equity Value (M)3,156.743,294.333,436.90
Shares Outstanding (M)535.99535.99535.99
Fair Value$5.89$6.15$6.41
Upside / Downside-71.75%-70.52%-69.25%

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