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Definitive Analysis

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Tibet Weixinkang Medicine Co., Ltd. (603676.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.58 - $103.61$97.10
Multi-Stage$15.43 - $16.88$16.14
Blended Fair Value$56.62
Current Price$11.68
Upside384.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS50.20%10.97%0.420.230.160.090.040.050.080.010.130.00
YoY Growth--81.78%40.52%73.26%111.11%-18.18%-31.25%880.27%-93.90%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--4.25%2.66%1.14%0.89%0.55%0.54%0.58%0.04%1.67%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)222.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)150.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)71.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)44.4227.7616.66
Cash Retained (M)71.2571.2571.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-44.42-27.76-16.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.8343.4954.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)426.26426.26426.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.100.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.100.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.48
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$42.58$97.10$103.61
Upside / Downside264.53%731.34%787.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)222.08236.52251.89268.26285.70304.27313.40
Payout Ratio67.92%72.33%76.75%81.17%85.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)150.83171.08193.33217.74244.51273.84289.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)159.08160.59162.10
Year 2 PV (M)167.16170.34173.56
Year 3 PV (M)175.06180.09185.21
Year 4 PV (M)182.80189.83197.06
Year 5 PV (M)190.37199.56209.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,704.535,980.066,266.14
Equity Value (M)6,579.016,880.487,193.18
Shares Outstanding (M)426.26426.26426.26
Fair Value$15.43$16.14$16.88
Upside / Downside32.14%38.20%44.48%

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