Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.,Ltd. (603659.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.81 - $45.80$26.97
Multi-Stage$12.42 - $13.57$12.99
Blended Fair Value$19.98
Current Price$30.92
Upside-35.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.55%88.34%0.270.340.240.150.130.140.090.000.000.00
YoY Growth---20.82%44.36%59.95%9.98%-6.12%61.46%2,565.69%620.24%-44.00%71.39%
Dividend Yield--1.47%1.69%0.68%0.30%0.57%0.96%0.66%0.03%0.01%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,651.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)541.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,110.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)330.39206.50123.90
Cash Retained (M)1,110.411,110.411,110.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-330.39-206.50-123.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)780.02903.92986.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,121.122,121.122,121.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.430.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.430.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.620.680.72
WACC / Discount Rate9.19%9.19%9.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.81$26.97$45.80
Upside / Downside-42.40%-12.78%48.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,651.961,759.341,873.701,995.492,125.202,263.332,331.23
Payout Ratio32.78%44.23%55.67%67.11%78.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)541.55778.081,043.081,339.231,669.482,037.002,156.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.19%9.19%9.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)705.90712.59719.28
Year 2 PV (M)858.52874.87891.37
Year 3 PV (M)1,000.011,028.711,057.97
Year 4 PV (M)1,130.951,174.451,219.18
Year 5 PV (M)1,251.901,312.371,375.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,406.5022,440.4423,513.95
Equity Value (M)26,353.7727,543.4328,776.91
Shares Outstanding (M)2,121.122,121.122,121.12
Fair Value$12.42$12.99$13.57
Upside / Downside-59.82%-58.00%-56.12%

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