Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Sunstone Development Co., Ltd. (603612.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$236.94 - $279.16$261.61
Multi-Stage$519.08 - $569.90$544.02
Blended Fair Value$402.81
Current Price$26.60
Upside1,414.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS52.58%12.08%0.501.040.430.170.040.060.330.070.190.22
YoY Growth---52.20%142.69%148.66%309.47%-30.00%-81.57%362.23%-62.33%-14.97%38.59%
Dividend Yield--2.93%8.42%1.85%0.90%0.26%0.57%2.09%0.23%2.31%2.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)709.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)197.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)512.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)141.9188.7053.22
Cash Retained (M)512.17512.17512.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-141.91-88.70-53.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)370.25423.47458.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)505.50505.50505.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.730.840.91
LTM Dividend per Share0.390.390.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.730.840.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.121.231.30
WACC / Discount Rate-19.19%-19.19%-19.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$236.94$261.61$279.16
Upside / Downside790.76%883.50%949.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)709.57755.69804.81857.12912.83972.171,001.33
Payout Ratio27.82%40.26%52.69%65.13%77.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)197.40304.21424.07558.22708.03874.95926.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-19.19%-19.19%-19.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)372.90376.43379.97
Year 2 PV (M)637.20649.33661.58
Year 3 PV (M)1,028.171,057.681,087.76
Year 4 PV (M)1,598.551,660.021,723.26
Year 5 PV (M)2,421.462,538.412,659.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)256,338.09268,719.32281,574.40
Equity Value (M)262,396.36275,001.21288,086.82
Shares Outstanding (M)505.50505.50505.50
Fair Value$519.08$544.02$569.90
Upside / Downside1,851.43%1,945.17%2,042.49%

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