Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.,Ltd. (603606.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$243.73 - $287.15$269.11
Multi-Stage$164.63 - $180.66$172.50
Blended Fair Value$220.80
Current Price$70.64
Upside212.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS32.04%16.69%0.480.300.400.240.140.120.090.070.040.06
YoY Growth--59.65%-25.25%68.64%65.95%20.19%29.01%33.47%86.99%-38.15%-41.45%
Dividend Yield--0.99%0.65%0.82%0.46%0.61%0.98%1.00%1.20%0.40%0.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)990.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)322.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)667.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)198.00123.7574.25
Cash Retained (M)667.17667.17667.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-198.00-123.75-74.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)469.16543.42592.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)685.65685.65685.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.680.790.86
LTM Dividend per Share0.470.470.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.680.790.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.161.261.34
WACC / Discount Rate2.45%2.45%2.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$243.73$269.11$287.15
Upside / Downside245.03%280.95%306.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)990.011,054.361,122.901,195.891,273.621,356.401,397.09
Payout Ratio32.61%44.09%55.57%67.04%78.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)322.85464.85623.95801.771,000.071,220.761,292.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.45%2.45%2.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)449.46453.72457.98
Year 2 PV (M)583.33594.44605.66
Year 3 PV (M)724.76745.57766.77
Year 4 PV (M)874.10907.71942.29
Year 5 PV (M)1,031.681,081.511,133.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)109,214.31114,489.41119,966.39
Equity Value (M)112,877.65118,272.36123,872.33
Shares Outstanding (M)685.65685.65685.65
Fair Value$164.63$172.50$180.66
Upside / Downside133.05%144.19%155.75%

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