Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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AUPU Intelligent Technology Corporation Limited (603551.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.31 - $18.31$13.69
Multi-Stage$18.47 - $20.27$19.35
Blended Fair Value$16.52
Current Price$12.15
Upside35.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS39.89%0.00%1.100.750.610.420.340.200.630.360.660.77
YoY Growth--45.80%22.80%46.05%22.90%66.67%-67.62%74.71%-44.78%-15.30%0.00%
Dividend Yield--10.36%6.89%5.33%4.53%2.83%1.16%2.89%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)295.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)208.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)86.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)59.0536.9122.15
Cash Retained (M)86.8986.8986.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-59.05-36.91-22.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)27.8449.9864.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)386.90386.90386.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.130.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.540.540.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.130.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.610.670.71
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate0.49%1.49%2.49%
Fair Value$10.31$13.69$18.31
Upside / Downside-15.16%12.64%50.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)295.27299.68304.15308.69313.30317.97327.51
Payout Ratio70.57%74.46%78.34%82.23%86.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)208.38223.14238.28253.83269.80286.18302.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate0.49%1.49%2.49%
Year 1 PV (M)207.56209.63211.69
Year 2 PV (M)206.18210.30214.47
Year 3 PV (M)204.30210.46216.75
Year 4 PV (M)201.99210.16218.56
Year 5 PV (M)199.30209.42219.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,125.266,436.146,759.53
Equity Value (M)7,144.607,486.117,840.94
Shares Outstanding (M)386.90386.90386.90
Fair Value$18.47$19.35$20.27
Upside / Downside51.99%59.25%66.80%

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