Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co., Ltd. (603396.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$56.24 - $66.26$62.09
Multi-Stage$39.03 - $42.81$40.88
Blended Fair Value$51.49
Current Price$28.09
Upside83.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.19%0.00%0.350.140.130.180.140.190.170.000.030.03
YoY Growth--141.99%6.25%-26.89%33.33%-25.88%9.68%0.00%-100.00%-6.60%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.34%0.35%0.19%0.29%0.44%1.00%0.53%0.00%0.15%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)45.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)12.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.195.743.45
Cash Retained (M)12.1212.1212.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.19-5.74-3.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.936.388.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)137.91137.91137.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate2.05%2.05%2.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$56.24$62.09$66.26
Upside / Downside100.21%121.05%135.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)45.9548.9352.1155.5059.1162.9564.84
Payout Ratio73.62%76.90%80.17%83.45%86.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.8337.6341.7846.3151.2656.6559.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.05%2.05%2.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)36.5336.8737.22
Year 2 PV (M)39.3740.1240.88
Year 3 PV (M)42.3643.5844.82
Year 4 PV (M)45.5247.2749.07
Year 5 PV (M)48.8351.1953.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,169.525,419.215,678.46
Equity Value (M)5,382.135,638.245,904.08
Shares Outstanding (M)137.91137.91137.91
Fair Value$39.03$40.88$42.81
Upside / Downside38.94%45.55%52.41%

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