Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Zhejiang Goldensea Hi-Tech Co., Ltd (603311.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Pollution & Treatment ControlsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.43 - $3.41$2.92
Multi-Stage$4.05 - $4.44$4.24
Blended Fair Value$3.58
Current Price$11.31
Upside-68.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.90%-0.94%0.100.150.140.210.180.170.160.110.060.08
YoY Growth---33.96%8.28%-32.51%17.07%5.09%4.21%47.22%69.26%-19.55%-26.64%
Dividend Yield--1.00%1.69%1.04%1.84%1.54%1.48%1.35%0.76%0.26%0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)90.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)56.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.1411.346.80
Cash Retained (M)56.3356.3356.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.14-11.34-6.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)38.1944.9949.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)234.38234.38234.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate9.45%9.45%9.45%
Growth Rate-2.94%-1.94%-0.94%
Fair Value$2.43$2.92$3.41
Upside / Downside-78.55%-74.22%-69.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)90.7288.9787.2485.5583.8982.2784.73
Payout Ratio37.91%48.32%58.74%69.16%79.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.3942.9951.2559.1766.7674.0478.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.45%9.45%9.45%
Growth Rate-2.94%-1.94%-0.94%
Year 1 PV (M)38.8839.2839.68
Year 2 PV (M)41.9142.7843.66
Year 3 PV (M)43.7645.1246.52
Year 4 PV (M)44.6546.5248.45
Year 5 PV (M)44.7847.1349.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)734.61773.24813.48
Equity Value (M)948.59994.081,041.37
Shares Outstanding (M)234.38234.38234.38
Fair Value$4.05$4.24$4.44
Upside / Downside-64.22%-62.50%-60.72%

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