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Definitive Analysis

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Jiang Su Suyan Jingshen Co.,Ltd. (603299.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$66.05 - $133.35$124.97
Multi-Stage$20.99 - $22.95$21.95
Blended Fair Value$73.46
Current Price$10.66
Upside589.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.81%6.80%0.480.460.220.130.180.160.180.140.170.18
YoY Growth--4.75%106.86%75.60%-30.90%15.17%-10.56%26.09%-18.86%-5.60%-26.18%
Dividend Yield--4.39%4.99%2.15%1.50%2.43%2.61%2.64%1.29%1.27%1.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)523.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)378.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)144.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)104.7065.4339.26
Cash Retained (M)144.76144.76144.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-104.70-65.43-39.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.0779.33105.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)780.68780.68780.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.100.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.100.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.62
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$66.05$124.97$133.35
Upside / Downside519.59%1,072.34%1,150.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)523.48557.50593.74632.33673.43717.21738.72
Payout Ratio72.35%75.88%79.41%82.94%86.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)378.72423.02471.47524.45582.31645.49683.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)394.00397.73401.47
Year 2 PV (M)409.01416.80424.66
Year 3 PV (M)423.75435.92448.31
Year 4 PV (M)438.23455.09472.42
Year 5 PV (M)452.45474.31497.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,268.4814,957.6515,673.20
Equity Value (M)16,385.9217,137.4917,917.06
Shares Outstanding (M)780.68780.68780.68
Fair Value$20.99$21.95$22.95
Upside / Downside96.90%105.93%115.30%

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